표 5 콕스비례위험모형 분석결과

	Model 1(permits~starts)			Model 2(starts~completions)
	Coef.	Haz. R	Std.	Coef.	Haz. R	Std.
주택가격변화율(Δpjt)	0.0156	1.0157	(.0021)***	−0.0022	0.9978	(.0022)
주택가격 불확실성 ( σ t 2 )	−3.6019	0.0273	(.026)***	−2.3204	0.0982	(.1082)**
미분양주택 비중(ηjt)	−0.0583	0.9434	(.0047)***	−0.0213	0.9790	(.0052)***
공사비지수 변화(Δct)	−0.0336	0.9669	(.0051)***	−0.0108	0.9893	(.006)*
실질금리(rt)	−0.0675	0.9347	(.0125)***	−0.1599	0.8522	(.0135***
공급세대수(si)	−0.0006	0.9994	(.0000)***	−0.0013	0.9987	(.0000)***
금융위기(ft)	−0.1148	0.8915	(.0473)**	−0.4670	0.6269	(.0332)***
지역(기준=서울)
부산	0.4789	1.6143	(.0757)***	0.4117	1.5094	(.0836)***
대구	0.3657	1.4415	(.0924)***	0.2852	1.3301	(.0998)***
인천	0.4486	1.5661	(.0817)***	0.5328	1.7037	(.0993)***
광주	0.4663	1.5941	(.1093)***	0.1929	1.2127	(.0973)**
대전	0.4433	1.5579	(.1126)***	0.3219	1.3798	(.1127)***
울산	0.5192	1.6807	(.1198)***	0.0550	1.0566	(.0914)
경기	0.3549	1.4261	(.0569)***	0.1906	1.2100	(.0566)***
강원	0.4459	1.5619	(.1305)***	−0.0139	0.9862	(.1051)
충북	0.4640	1.5904	(.1146)***	0.0467	1.0478	(.0893)
충남	0.5221	1.6855	(.1166)***	0.1943	1.2145	(.0947)**
전북	0.2604	1.2974	(.0888)***	0.1272	1.1356	(.0908)
전남	0.3024	1.3531	(.0972)***	0.0632	1.0652	(.0922)
경북	0.5471	1.7282	(.1018)***	0.4488	1.5664	(.1053)***
경남	0.5426	1.7204	(.0974)***	0.1556	1.1684	(.0755)**
제주	0.4259	1.5309	(.0953)***	0.5496	1.7326	(.1186)***
N	10,637			8,415
Log likeli.*	−71,310.6			−49,160.8

우도비는 5% 내에서 유의.